February 6, 2026 | Buying
A Muted Start to the Year
2026 has begun quietly in the GTA real estate market, and the data from January offers an early snapshot of a market continuing to recalibrate. Rather than dramatic shifts, the numbers point to a slower, more deliberate start as both buyers and sellers move forward cautiously.
In January 2026, there were 3,082 home sales reported, representing a 19.3% decline compared to January 2025. At the same time, 10,774 new listings were added to the MLS® System, down 13.3% year-over-year. Together, these figures suggest reduced activity on both sides of the market, reinforcing the measured tone that carried over from late 2025.
Sales and Listings Reflect Cautious Market Sentiment
Lower sales and fewer new listings indicate that market participants are still navigating affordability concerns and broader economic uncertainty. Buyers remain selective, and sellers appear hesitant to list unless conditions align with their expectations.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales declined month-over-month from December 2025, while new listings increased slightly. This imbalance reflects early signs of sellers testing the market while buyer demand remains restrained, a pattern often seen during transitional periods.
Prices Continue to Adjust
Pricing trends in January further support the narrative of a market in adjustment rather than decline. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was down 8% year-over-year, while the average selling price reached $973,289, a 6.5% decrease compared to January 2025.
Both the MLS® HPI composite and the average selling price also trended lower compared to December 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis. These changes point to a gradual realignment of pricing, easing pressure on buyers while encouraging sellers to approach pricing with greater precision.
Seasonal Trends and Early-Year Momentum
January is historically one of the quietest months of the year for real estate activity, and the 2026 figures align with that pattern. Early-year data often reflects hesitation rather than long-term direction, making it important to view January’s performance within a broader seasonal context.
As the market moves toward spring, increased listings and renewed buyer engagement could influence both pricing and transaction volume. Whether that momentum materializes will largely depend on shifts in economic confidence and household stability.
A Market Finding Its Balance
What stands out most in this early data is the absence of volatility. The market is not experiencing sharp declines or rapid rebounds, but rather a steady process of normalization following several years of heightened activity.
Reduced competition, fewer bidding wars, and more balanced negotiations are increasingly common. This environment rewards preparation, patience and informed decision-making on both sides of a transaction.
What This Means for Buyers
For buyers, early 2026 offers a calmer landscape. Softer prices, improved negotiating conditions and reduced urgency create space for thoughtful decision-making. Buyers who are well-prepared and realistic about their goals may find opportunities that were harder to access in previous years.
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, success in 2026 will depend heavily on strategy. Accurate pricing, thoughtful presentation and strong marketing are essential in a market where buyers are selective. Homes that are positioned correctly continue to attract attention, while overpricing is less likely to be rewarded.
Looking Ahead to the Rest of 2026
The year ahead is shaping up to be one of measured opportunity rather than rapid acceleration. While uncertainty remains a factor, the gradual improvements in affordability and balance suggest a healthier foundation for long-term market stability.
As 2026 unfolds, understanding market data and aligning expectations with current conditions will be key. Whether planning a move this year or preparing for the future, a strategic approach grounded in clarity and timing will matter more than ever.