March 9, 2018 | Buying

Forecasts Were in the Right Ballpark 

“When TREB released its Outlook for 2018, the forecast anticipated a slow start to the year compared to the historically high sales count reported in the winter and early spring of 2017,” says Tim Syrianos, the Toronto Real Estate Board President. These forecasts were right on cue. 

This February, sales activity was relatively slow. With just over 5,100 transactions, this year clocked far fewer transactions than the record-high number of transactions in 2017. This is to be expected, since the market reached its highest points before the Fair Housing Plan took effect in April.  

But the most interesting figure? There were more newly-added listings this February than last year. Which means we’re seeing the beginnings of a thaw, or even a surprisingly hot spring market.  

Clearly, the forecast for a slower start this year was correct – but we’re looking at an uptick as soon as the snow lets up. 

Detached Who? 

 It’s official: townhouses are some of the hottest real estate assets in Toronto right now. 

As the more affordable alternative to detached homes without going the route of condos, townhouses are in hot demand. Both the numbers and our clients are showing this to be true. Townhouses are in.  

Price growth for townhouses jumped 15% between February 2017 and 2018 – a shock, considering condos and detached homes have ruled the conversation in Toronto. And it’s even more interesting when looking at the annual price growth in other housing sectors. Detached home prices are 18 percent lower than last year, and semi-detached homes are just 9 percent lower. 

Condos are in the black, with price growth just above 10% year-over-year. Way to go, townhouses. 

A Real Estate Mystery 

In February, there was exactly one transaction in the $0-$99,999 range.  

Yeah, we can’t believe it either. Turns out, the unicorn condo was a small one-bedroom near Jane & Steeles, likely sold to an investor. 

While we often end up talking about averages in our market report, sometimes it’s nice to branch out and look at the outliers. What can you still get for less than 5 digits in Toronto?  

Since rental prices are still sky-high all over the city, it was probably a great score. 

What Can We Expect in Spring? 

It’s already started: the spring thaw happens every year like an avalanche, and we’re excited to see the numbers change. 

Our guesses? One of the biggest changes we’re expecting is a decrease in the average days that a listing stays on the market.  

While the volume of transactions and listings shoot up in the summer, so does the number of active buyers in the city. With real estate prices on an upswing, we’re expecting investors and first-time buyers to come out of the woodwork to snag the condos and townhouses.  

The best thing to watch over the next couple of months will be listing volume and number of days on market. Keep your eyes on any changes between the beginning of the year and the spring/summer season. And of course, don’t forget to check back here to read our monthly market report.  

Have any metrics you’re curious about? Want to know more about Toronto’s market data? We’d love to talk about it with you. Send us a message and we can meet for coffee.